Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 14.368343 17.522839 21.045484 25.247641 30.099633 35.501528 41.944907
2025-04-13 8.807357 12.524391 17.178467 23.333262 31.148809 40.627469 52.865374
2025-04-20 6.616664 10.603804 16.047407 23.803536 34.324185 47.834777 66.195588
2025-04-27 5.259342 9.355462 15.376030 24.497116 37.538015 55.046179 79.783941
2025-05-04 4.342522 8.491025 15.001196 25.399464 40.938370 62.576288 94.124810
2025-05-11 3.569977 7.652373 14.470832 25.908379 43.698902 69.290243 107.644242
2025-05-18 2.851596 6.720734 13.603435 25.719819 45.308780 74.368830 119.057344
2025-05-25 2.191495 5.719003 12.423692 24.824712 45.665715 77.536669 127.791073
2025-06-01 1.750494 5.033540 11.670529 24.509578 46.843292 81.917842 138.435664
2025-06-08 1.322620 4.245114 10.570577 23.413925 46.584895 83.997769 145.645379
2025-06-15 1.142179 3.988935 10.474630 24.119723 49.393408 91.015364 160.687160
2025-06-22 0.881679 3.438933 9.660140 23.344198 49.524681 93.688457 169.031891
2025-06-29 0.769206 3.290234 9.760412 24.506217 53.444652 103.179046 189.273306
2025-07-06 0.515912 2.601537 8.473627 22.681285 51.761170 103.281210 194.593263
2025-07-13 0.421032 2.386949 8.286369 23.143463 54.403869 110.887728 212.520530
2025-07-20 0.351259 2.228219 8.206043 23.821718 57.505014 119.442957 232.386974
2025-07-27 0.299281 2.113029 8.217510 24.704083 61.068381 128.987011 254.306120
2025-08-03 0.245898 1.957613 8.076518 25.201785 63.875833 137.297162 274.441585
2025-08-10 0.188356 1.736632 7.680507 25.017375 65.237454 143.016149 290.314589
2025-08-17 0.132592 1.467939 7.051464 24.142049 65.035619 145.791695 301.120628
2025-08-24 0.098128 1.289336 6.666438 23.833911 66.017733 150.819478 316.079481
2025-08-31 0.064753 1.065965 6.040651 22.762722 65.184687 152.289166 324.676084
2025-09-07 0.053588 1.011296 6.041908 23.452736 68.416426 161.827161 348.269324